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Author Topic: Avatar World: Population Estimate  (Read 4909 times)
airmaster22
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« Reply #25 on: Jul 03, 2009 10:45 am »

Yes but we also have to keep in mind that Ba Sing Se's size on the map is a huge exaggeration meant to show its immense size and importance. I think it took  inflences from old maps of our world, which show large and important things as much larger than they are. Ba Sing SE is nowhere near as large as it is shown to be. There is no way that the food grown in the Agrarian zone could support such a huge population, especially considered that much of that land is mountainous and incapable of growing food.
The city is enormous, and has a huge population, and 8 million seems good. Its the population of NYC, and much larger than any pre-industrial city. No city in world history has ever had that large of a population until the 20th century. Of course, earthbending helps, powering the monorail to link the city together and speeding up food and supply delivery. One quarter to one third of the population is probably foreign, mostly living in the lower ring. There are probably 2 to 3 million refugees residing in the city. I know that it is a safe haven for refugees, but I got the feeling that only the people who could escape to the city did. The Earth Kingdom obviously had many other great large cities before the war, but were taken over early on. They probably still exist, very different and under Fire Nation control. However, I think that they didn't allow many of the original Earth Kingdom citizens to leave these towns and cities. They probably  tax them like crazy, increasing their own wealth at the expense of the Earth Kingdom natives. My opinion is that the majority of the Earth Kingdom citizens live in towns and cities like Haru's, under firm Fire Nation control. Only some were able to leave for BA Sing Se, leading to a swell in the city's population.
I agree with you that the war created an imbalance in population sizes. THe Northern Water Tribe couldn't support as large as a population, and people were afraid of possible war and attack, so the birth rate and population decreased. Also, the presumed attack on the city in the war's fifteenth year could have wiped out a good part of their population, and they tried not to let it get too big. Before the war, the Northern Water Tribe capital probably had close to 1 million people. Who knows, maybe there were other, lesser Northern Water Tribe towns and cities, but they were abandoned and, like in the Earth Kingdom, moved in the safer capital. I also think that they lost a good chunk of their population in the siege of the north, maybe up to 100,000. The Southern Water Tribe's population also obviously decreased, altohugh they were hit much harder, many being killed or captured. Many earth kingdom citizens died in the beginning, and urban centers in the nation probably swelled in population. As the war went on and more and more cities were conquered, Ba Sing Se seemed to be the only city that could withstand a Fire Nation siege, leading to a massive swelling in its population later on in the war. Meanwhile, the Fire Nation's population probably did  just the opposite of the other nations. Living in complete safety and taking advantage of resources from the other three nations, mainly the Earth Kingdom, The Fire Nation's quality of life may have increased partially, and the population could have increased. More people probably moved into major urban centers, and its population probably doubled. I have a feeling that the Fire Nation capital city is not its largest city, and that it has many other major urban centers of production and manufacturing located on the capital island. In these cities there might be high-rise type buildings with pagoda-style "skyscrapers."
THe Air Nomads population was completely eradicated. The minority probably lived in the air temples, mabye ten or so percent. SO there may have been up to 50,000 people living in the Air Temples, and a total of 500,000 to 1 million Air Nomads. The majority of the nomads were probably killed within the first 5 years or so, and the remainder were tracked down for the next 20 years. There may be descendants of the Air Nomads mixed in the Earth Kingdom population from ancestors hiding in safe cities around the world.
Now that the war is over, Most of the world's population will increase. The Earth Kingdom will take back and rebuilt many of its great cities, and Ba Sing Se's population will decrease to around 5 million, and quality of life will increase greatly there. The Earth Kingdom population could increase from 50 million to 80 or even 100 million. The Northern Water Tribe will also increase, possibly well into the millions, although they could possibly need to extend the boundaries of the city, or construct taller buildings. The Southern Water Tribe is being rebuilt, and all the various villages and tribes will probably unite in one city, perhaps starting out with 40,000 or so people and expanding into the hundred thousands. The Fire Nation may experience a brief economic reccession, with a loss of many of resources and an end to weapon production. They might start making more commercialized  products, perhaps even using airships as a new way of domestic travel, haha. Their population will probably stabilize around 20 million, then start on a steady increase.
REgarding the Omashu issue, I still think that the Northern Water Tribe and Omashu are around the same size, with Omashu being somewhat larger.
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Master_Waterbender15
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« Reply #26 on: Jul 03, 2009 10:53 pm »

I wholeheartedly agree with everything you're saying. I'm going to be completely honest, I don't know that much about populations at all, so I was just throwing around comparative numbers. I wasn't really putting down actual predictions, I was kind of just trying to give comparative numbers for each nation, as in sort of a percentage based description. Serving little to no purpose in regard to actual statistics, I still think that my percentages would apply to the numbers you're trying to solidify. So, basically, I totally agree.

Anyway, the one thing is I still think that there would be more people in the NWT city in a normal setting than in Omashu. I say normally as in a peace-time setting without the effects of war. Two reasons: 1) I think that the population of Omashu was bloated more from refugees than the NWT, and 2) Because, as you pointed out, the NWT was battered twice over by a full-on, unsuccessful FN invasion. So, basically, I think that the NWT has in the past and will in the future grow larger than the city of Omashu. With the war over the WT's are going to make a huge comeback, ostensibly, as during the war their connections were severed, and with the southern journey of Master Pakku to restore the SWT their trading and interplay will be totally reestablished and reinforced.

I just have to say one other thing about this population thing. The whole idea of modernization and urbanization is kind of moot in the world of Avatar. I'm thinking the reason why Ba Sing Se can support so many people is because construction is a breeze! Earthbending and the sort facilitates so many aspects that only our heavy machinery can handle. Omashu and the NWT are no exceptions with their impeccably natural and clean transportation systems. These aspects, made possible by bending of course, are the advancements that push their society, making them already highly advanced in their own ways. Firebending, being an intangible and impermanent art, has given rise to more efficient industrialization, which, again, is sort of like their bending advantage.

Anyway, everything else is a go, I totally agree.
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Phoenix Storm
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« Reply #27 on: Jul 04, 2009 12:27 am »

This is now.
NWT- 3 million
SWT- 50-120
EK- 2 Billion
FN- 1 Billion
AN- 1

This is then.
NWT- 4.3 Million
EK- 2.6 Billion
FN- 1.8 Billion
AN- 3.2 Million
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Master_Waterbender15
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« Reply #28 on: Jul 04, 2009 01:10 am »

I think those numbers are way too high. We just spent quite a length discussing the limits. You're suggesting that the Avatar World itself has nearly as many people as our world, and I just don't think that's the case, mainly because they're world has uninhabited regions whereas ours is smothered with settlements everywhere. I think there are far less people in the Avatar World, which is why I was saying like 500 million people tops. Yeah, that definitely sounds reasonable, maybe less though, as I said 500 million would be a maximum probably.
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airmaster22
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« Reply #29 on: Jul 04, 2009 12:19 pm »

Yeah, those numbers are much too high.... The avatar world is not nearly as industrialized and urbanized, both of which contribute to a higher population. Besides, their medical system is still rather primitive compared to ours and without breakthroughs in the medical system, the death rate will not go down at much, which means that there isn't a great population increase. Also, we have to remember that it was only 100 years ago that the world population was only around 2 billion. It has rapidly increased in the past hundred years very much due to higher quality of life, scientific, technological, and medical advances that the avatar world have not reached. By the way, the Fire Nation population has most likely increased, not decreased. Sure there were soldier deaths, but the rest of the nation was safe at home, where they could flourish and thrive on the resources of the other nations and industrialize further, so they probably had a population increase.
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Master_Waterbender15
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« Reply #30 on: Jul 04, 2009 12:53 pm »

Yeah, the Fire Nation population has definitely boomed over the course of the war. They were the ones who always won, who dominated and destroyed. The increase in production and industrialization definitely lent to a rise in urban settlements and a concentration of population. Their numbers have done nothing but increase since the time of Sozin.

Personally I think that the FN will see a bit of a downturn since the end of the war. Their economy will definitely slow and take some time to adjust to a peace-time oriented production standard. Also with many of the FN colonials returning home (whether they're forced to or not they'll probably willing return to the homeland) they might see some overcrowding in the cities and a rise in poverty or disease. Anyway, it'll probably only be a brief recession, especially with their brilliant leader and impeccable drive as a nation overall to succeed.
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Phoenix Storm
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« Reply #31 on: Jul 04, 2009 01:51 pm »

500 Million people is too low because this is a planet not a country. That is only a little less than half of India or China. And the northern water tribe is a very large city so there would probably be close to the same size as like L.A.  20,000 is way too low for the Air nomads. That 20,000 would be like half of one temple. 20,000 is small city here our world. But I agree that the FN population would Increase.
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« Reply #32 on: Jul 04, 2009 09:02 pm »

The human population of this planet has been in the hundred thousands for a very long time. It's only with the agricultural and especially the industrial revolutions in the last few centuries that it started booming. If the avatar world is really smaller than ours (as it seems to be) on top of being less industrialized, then 500 million isn't unreasonable.

Also, the air temples are basically just a few buildings. You won't fit millions of people in one building. It's too bad we have no clue how many % of them actually lived in the temples, that would have helped our estimation.
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Master_Waterbender15
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« Reply #33 on: Jul 05, 2009 05:12 pm »

I have a theory about the Air Nomads, actually. Logically speaking, judging from what we've seen, it would appear that only the oldest and the youngest Air Nomads live in the Temples. Obviously all the younger Air Nomads remain in the Temples for their upbringing and socialization; certainly they're allowed to travel and roam as nomads do, but not to the same extent as adults are. I think after earning their arrows the fledglings take flight and leave the Temples, probably around the age of 16. Obviously through their adult life, till maybe their 50's or late 40's, they reject a permanent residence and wander the world peripatetically, to meet different people, to fall in love, to go where the wind may carry them. They settle down after said duration to become mentors themselves, to find a resting place to live out their days. I think this is probably the most accurate, mostly seeing as we have never seen any teens or young adults at the Temples. There's a generation gap: only the newest and oldest generations are housed in the Temples while those in between fulfill their nomadic heritage and propensities.

The Air Temples are pretty large though, they're like a smaller version of a decent sized Avatar World city. They aren't that small, I'd say they house at least 50,000 - 100,000, with a higher maximum capacity. Obviously they aren't built for millions, the point is that the majority of the AN nation would roam the earth, so the Temples would never need to house that many. I'd say about 30% of the Nomads were housed in the Temples, while the rest roamed. Overall, before the genocide, I'd say there were probably around a million Air Nomads, possibly a bit less. Then there'd only be about 300,000 spread between the 4 Temples, which in my mind would seem entirely reasonable. That means about 75,000 per Temple, which again would seem accurate to me.

The only thing with having so few in the Temples is how the FN would've killed so many by just attacking the Temples themselves. My theory on this is that once the Temples were attacked, other Air Nomads were probably lured back to the Temples, or called in for support by some form of communication, perhaps messanger lemur. They would've flown back to their death in a vain attempt to save their fellow Nomads. The rest would've been tracked down vigorously.

Before the war, I'd say the population of the world was probably smaller, but then again also a lot more evened out. I'd say the antebellum period probably saw about:
1 million Air Nomads,
7-10 million Water Tribesmen,
200 million in the Earth Kingdom,
and only about 50 million or less in the Fire Nation.

I'm thinking that the war brought a population boom in the Fire Nation, and also a gradual increase in the Earth Kingdom over the 100 year period. That said, the Water Tribes were inarguably decimated, and, as we all know, the Air Nomads were eradicated. So the world saw an overall increase, but at the expense of half the world's diversity. Leaving the populations somewhere around this ball-park:

Air Nomads: 1
Water Tribes: 1-2 million
Earth Kingdom: 300 million
Fire Nation: 150-200 million

It's tragic, but hopefully things will even out with the decrease in Fire Nationals and a big boost for the Water Tribes. I'm thinking up to 50 million at least in the Water Tribes by the turn of the next century in the Avatar World, mostly because I think that they'll colonize some islands on their inter-tribe trade route, and possibly give WT recognition to the Foggy Swamp Tribe. In any event, things will balance out as the FN sees some set backs and the remaining two nations make major comebacks.
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HardcoreHarlan
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« Reply #34 on: Jun 19, 2012 05:39 pm »

Quick Question:  How many people are there in the avatar world at the time when the show occurred? 
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« Reply #35 on: Jun 20, 2012 10:25 am »

Population in ATLA merged into the older thread Avatar World: Population Estimate.


There's also a thread specifically for the population of Ba Sing Se, if you're interested -- Ba Sing Se Population Estimate.
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Qin Shi Huang
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« Reply #36 on: Jul 06, 2012 09:17 pm »

I dont know if this topic is still alive, if it's not, sorry mods =/
IMO After the war,soldiers will comeback to FN, all people will go back to normal lifes, harvesting some rice and such, some EVEN higher population boom [more workforce in the countryside]
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